Any experienced fantasy player can tell you that volume is key to winning, which is 100% true. However, what matters just as much if not more is making the right decisions when it comes to your lineup and who you should start or sit. Matchups matter whether you want to admit it or not, but talent also matters. I know, it’s a lot to consider. But don’t worry! Let’s take a look at some guys you should start and some you should sit to help you maximize your odds at winning this week.
START - Josh Allen vs. PHI
The Konami Code is in full-effect here and there’s no doubt that Allen has been surpassing expectations so far this season. At first glance, the matchup against Philly looks intimidating, but this defense has been pretty good for Quarterbacks so far this season. According to FantasyPros, the Eagles are the 10th easiest defensive matchup for QBs and are allowing just under 12% more fantasy points to QBs than the average defense.
START - Ryan Tannehill vs TB
I know. I had trouble getting the words out too. But, Tannehill had a decent outing against the Chargers last week even earning the Titans one of their three victories so far this season. Let’s not forget that Tannehill has been a friend to fantasy owners in the past. He should have no problem doing so again this week against a TB defense that is currently the best possible matchup for opposing Quarterbacks allowing an average 21.4 fantasy points to opposing QBs, which is 30% more than the average defense.
SIT - Jacoby Brissett vs DEN
Brissett has been playing out of his mind so far this season with a TD% well above average and rivaling that of Russell Wilson from last season. What I’m alluding to is the fact that he will regress to the mean and it will start this week against Denver, currently the 2nd worst matchup for fantasy QBs. That combined with the Colts’ “Run the Damn Ball” attitude against the exploitable run defense of the Bucs means that Brissett will disappoint fantasy owners that start him this week.
START - Sony Michel/James White vs CLE
Let’s be clear. I don’t expect Michel to put up 3 TDs again this week if ever. But the Cleveland defense has been hemorrhaging fantasy points to opposing RBs including two 100+ yard performances in the last two weeks to Chris Carson and Matt Breida. Tevin Coleman almost made it three but fell just short at 97 rushing yards. In a plus matchup against the 7th easiest defense for RBs, I like both backs in New England this week.
START - Ty Johnson vs NYG
You paid up to get him off the waiver wire so you may as well start him this week. Johnson went under the radar during the draft process, but is no slouch when it comes to talent. Coming in for an injured Kerryon last week, he was the clear back the Lions went to seeing 10 rush attempts and even better, 4 targets which he caught all of. Given a week to scheme him in and against the 10th easiest rush defense of the Giants that just let Chase Edmonds score 3 TDs on them, Ty is a solid start this week.
SIT - Derrick Henry vs TB
Henry’s success has always depended on running the ball often enough for him to wear down the defense and break a big play so I’m worried for him moving forward if the Titans can find a passing game in Ryan Tannehill. Let’s also not overlook the fact that the Tampa Bay run defense has been otherworldly considering they’ve faced Christian McCaffrey twice, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Todd Gurley and have only allowed an average of 29.8 rushing yards per game and 3 total rushing TDs. Henry will struggle this week and so will owners who start him.
START - Robby Anderson @ JAC
I’m going a little contrarian here, but take a walk down narrative street with me. There has been a whirlwind of rumors that the Jets are looking to move Anderson before the trade deadline (Tuesday, Oct 29) and what better way to convince a team to trade for Anderson than to feature him in your offense two days before the deadline. And I know, Anderson was severely underwhelming on Monday night, but even with the Jets having 6 turnovers he still saw 8 targets and most were uncatchable. The bottom line is he’s talented, he’s getting volume, and his matchup this week is not that bad at all.
START - John Brown vs PHI
See Josh Allen above and add in that Brown currently averages 14.3 yards per reception. And let's also factor in that the Eagles have allowed an opposing WR to have 100+ receiving yards in every game this season except for their Week 5 bout with the Jets who started Luke Freaking Falk. John Brown is a must-start this week.
SIT - Curtis Samuel/DJ Moore @ SF
In case you haven’t noticed, the 49ers defense is good. Really good. And yes, Kyle Allen is good, but he’s no Cam Newton and with where you drafted Samuel and Moore, you should have a better WR option you can pivot to. There’s no need to start them this week.
START - Hunter Henry @ CHI
I don’t know what’s happening with the Bears defense lately, but it’s becoming one that can be taken advantage of for fantasy. Roquan Smith is not playing up the same level that he has in the past and with Hunter Henry totaling 17 targets, 197 yards, and 2 TDs since his return, he is a solid start this week at a gross TE position.
START - Cameron Brate @ TEN
OJ Howard was ruled out earlier this week which makes Brate an even more intriguing start despite the volume he was already getting. Tennessee is one of the easier TE matchups allowing at least 1 TD to the TE position in more than half of their games so far this season and if you’re in a bind at the TE spot this week (who isn’t) then you could do worse than him this week.
SIT - Zach Ertz @ BUF
I know. I can’t believe I’m telling you to bench Zach Ertz either. But the reality is that this is not the same Zach Ertz we have seen in the past. He’s no getting the same volume that he was with the emergence of Dallas Goedert and the Buffalo defense is legit. Away from home and with his current struggles, I’d pivot away from Ertz if you could.
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