Week 7 DFS Targets

October 19, 2019

 

Quarterbacks

 

 

Jared Goff – LAR ($6200)

Give me some Goff in this week’s projected highest-scoring matchup. Goff and company took a hit last week against the league’s 2nd-best overall defense in the 49ers. It was a tough loss and everybody came out the worse for it. I’m hoping this leaves a sour taste in fantasy owners’ mouths as I want to capitalize on recency bias. Look, the Rams are talented, especially in their receiving game. Atlanta is looking awful this year and they have had a tough time putting pressure on quarterbacks. It’s an away game for Goff, but that also means he’ll maintain the comfort of a dome against a team that is 2nd-worst against both WRs and QBs in Draftkings’ format. I am all over this price-point, especially stacked with one of my top WRs (see below).

 

 

Josh Allen – BUF ($6500)

Allen is receiving plenty of love from experts and the prices on Draftkings (he’s priced above Aaron Rodgers now), but there’s a good reason for this love. It’s really hard to find winning DFS quarterbacks outside of games with 50 or fewer points scored, and this week isn’t projected to be a high scoring game. Allen’s ceiling is much lower than, say, Matt Ryan (who you should also have some exposure to), but he’s an excellent cash play. Allen and Singletary are a nice one-two punch with solid floors as the Bills should handily defeat the Dolphins who are allowing QBs to walk all over them. While there are options to consider for a stack, such as John Brown, I’m mostly avoiding it and will look to keep Allen alone in cash games.

 

Running Backs

 

 

Dalvin Cook – MIN ($8000)

What to do at RB when Christian McCaffrey is on bye? Pick the next best thing. While CMC has been beasting, Cook owned the fantasy MVP spot for weeks and is currently the highest-scoring DraftKings running back available in this week’s lineups, but that said, he’s priced as the RB3. Although this is an away game, everything else looks ideal for Cook, who will face the third-weakest team against RBs in Detroit, behind a strong rushing O-line, as close favorites in a fairly high-scoring game. Backup Alexander Mattison will get his, and both are fair plays, but you have to start RBs at the top, and here’s your top option for the week.

 

 

Devin Singletary – BUF ($5400)

Singletary and the Bills get a delicious matchup as three-score favorites against the atrocious Dolphins. This isn’t a particularly sneaky play, as Singletary’s price has risen even beyond that of teammate Frank Gore. As well, DraftKings players are going to see the “32nd” under opponent point rank and mash him in for a lock, but he’ll be a well-deserved RB2 despite the ownership. Although Singletary is the up-and-coming name in BUF, he’s still fresh enough that he’s probably not priced at his true value. Not only is now the time to grab him in redraft, but this is probably his best matchup in all the remaining weeks. Heavy favorites, with a rushing QB, at home, and he’s priced just below his point-per-game yearly performance.

 

Other Targets: Marlon Mack ($6000) had a combined thirty-two carries and targets in his last outing without a TD and are slight favorites against HOU. Alexander Mattison ($4600) is approaching Cook in total opportunity, and he has flashed upside before. Joe Mixon ($5000) is disturbingly cheap compared to his pre-draft rankings, but this week is a funnel opportunity as Jacksonville is slightly more susceptible to the rush than pass or receiving.

 

Wide Receivers

 

 

Cooper Kupp – LAR ($7400)

Cooper Kupp has been total fire this year in fantasy, and it’s not just because of running back woes in Los Angeles, as Kupp has come back strong than ever from a torn ACL as he has thoroughly carved himself a role on top of the three-headed dragon that is the Rams’ 11-personnel. The Rams have a pretty cake matchup for WRs in what should be the week’s highest-scoring matchup against the Falcons. Rams receivers did not pull it together a week ago and even Kupp’s targets were un-inspiring. I hope that can help push ownership down, but I’m seeing a deal here regardless, as Kupp is number two of available WRs in points per game, yet he’s being priced out of the top five. This is where you can take a reasonably priced WR1 who will dominate in targets, and should rebound on the path to fantasy glory.

 

 

TY Hilton – IND ($5900)

I just don’t understand this. Sure, there was a bit of an injury, but he’s coming off a bye after his only game of the year without a touchdown and less than five targets. Hilton is playing great football, even without Andrew Luck, and now he gets a super matchup at home against the Texans. My offseason research led me to the conclusion that combining multiple flexes from the same team is an often profitable move, especially in smaller fields. Hilton is almost the entirety of this team’s receiving offense, and I could see this matchup easily hitting the Over. Hilton’s year-long play is low-end WR1, but he’s priced as a low-end WR2. Targets are essentially guaranteed, and Hilton has the big play ability to warrant picks in both GPP and Cash. Feel free to load up on the Colts this week.

 

Other Targets: Julian Edelman ($7000) is my only other pricey option I want at WR this week; more of a cash play than GPP, Edelman saw 15 targets a week ago and Josh Gordon is still injured. Devin Smith ($3400) has been quiet recently, but the Eagles can’t stop WRs and just about everybody is hurt in Dallas. Albert Wilson ($3600) was a popular pre-season sleeper, and some of that luck might turn around as Ryan Fitzpatrick (now starting) absolutely LOVES slot receivers.

 

Tight Ends


 

 

Mark Andrews – BAL ($4900)

It would probably be better if Baltimore were projected to win this game, but a close loss to Seattle might just mean more work for Andrews, who is already receiving tons of it. Two weeks ago, I pointed to Marquise Brown as the most targeted Raven, but that has since turned to Andrews, who has a substantial share of total team targets. This isn’t lost on anybody, as Andrews has played lights out. Marquise Brown is currently dealing with an injury, and in the off chance he does play, he’ll likely be limited, granting even more work to Andrews, who saw eight targets in his last game but couldn’t come away with a TD. He is priced significantly below his season-long performance indicates, which is weird, especially because Seattle is one of the weakest teams to opposing tight ends. Take advantage of the DraftKings’ pricing algorithm and play this beast.

 

 

Gerald Everett – LAR ($3700)

Everett is currently priced exactly at his season-long performance as the twelfth-most expensive TE, just right there on the edge of TE1 status. Let’s not forget with my recommendations for Goff and Kupp that last week was bad for all Rams, but not so in this matchup. Atlanta is having trouble stopping just about anything, and with a game this high-scoring, it’s ideal to have players on both sides (for that matter, Austin Hooper is a nice play, too). But I like Everett more because before the loss to the 49ers, Everett put up a monster 11-target, 136-yard performance without a score. Remember the regression. Always remember TD regression. It’s coming, and probably this game.

 

Defense / Special Teams

 

 

Chicago Bears ($3000)

The Bears have a scary red “7th” under opponent rank per game on DraftKings, but don’t let that scare you. What this means to me is that 2018’s most dominant defense will have low ownership in a game that could easily blow up in their favor. The Bears definitely weren’t worth their re-draft price, but with a DFS price just barely within the top 10, there is too much good going on to pass up. They check off essentially every one of my boxes this week as they are low-priced, favorites, with one of the top-scoring totals on the year, in the lowest projected scoring game of the week. Drew Brees will be back one day, but Bridgewater is showing cracks in the foundation and now Kamara and Cook have been ruled out. Sign me up.

 

 

Detroit Lions ($2300)

Lions are a good play if you’re looking to both save some cap space and play some low-ownership. They are currently projected to lose, but this is a game I could see swinging the other way. It’s essential that your fantasy defense wins its game if you want to win a tournament, and this team is only a one-point underdog in a tough NFC North matchup. Not recommended for cash games, this is a more volatile pick and one you might want to avoid if also playing Dalvin Cook as I suggest. Lions are dogs and vulnerable to the ground game, but they could give Cousins a hard time and Diggs is not going to repeat his monster performance. The Lions have quietly been one of the better DraftKings defenses this year, and their price simply doesn’t reflect that.

 

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