Predicting Value Off Draft Predictions

April 22, 2019

 

Not a whole lot going on in the league right now except reactions to some pro days and retirements. But it's always good to stay a step ahead of the competition. And depending on your team setup, you may take some steps after reading this.

 

What I'm doing here, is essentially giving everyone something to think about as the draft gets closer. There are some players that have a foggy fantasy outlook into 2019 as it looks like they may be in line for an increased workload because they've moved up the pecking order. However, those teams may look into drafting help to cover their rears because the team may not be all in on the talent it has.

 

I know this is more helpful to leagues where there are keepers or in dynasty leagues, it is, however, something to keep in mind as the draft approaches.

 

Here are some players that may be affected by their teams drafting players that can affect their draft stock negatively.

 

 

Paul Richardson, WR, Washington

 

Richardson is atop the depth chart in Washington with Crowder and Harris signing with other teams (Jets and Patriots respectively). Given that he's in the 2nd year of a 5 year $40 Million dollar contract, the team will stay invested this year. However, the offensive pieces to get excited for are all coming off an injury. Richardson himself was injured early on before landing on IR. We all saw Guice's knee injury in the preseason and read the report saying he needed 3 additional surgeries to deal with an infection in that knee. Jordan Reed is Jordan Reed. And let's not forget Alex Smith won't be back maybe ever (good luck in his recovery).

 

Because of all the issues on offense, I see them drafting skill positions often in the draft. They have 9 draft picks so they can address the offense and defense. This year's draft is deep at WR so if they want to use their 1st overall pick on defense, they'd still be able to get some talent in later rounds. It may not be top talent, but they may just want to bring in some competition into camp. And because Richardson hasn't done much for the team so far, it wouldn't surprise me if they move him around the field to give others a shot.

 

 

Mike Davis, RB, Bears

 

The Bears earliest pick is a 3rd rounder. However, I believe that there will be some talented RBs for the Bears to pick from in that spot. The Bears won't reach, but if there's a guy they love there, then it'll ruin Davis’ current value.

 

That guy for me is Rodney Anderson. I believe Nagy (Bears Head Coach) wants a guy like Kareem Hunt (on the field), and because they didn't give Davis that horseback money, Rodney Anderson becomes appealing in the draft. He can catch, run, he's explosive and young enough to not allow the injuries to slow him down.

 

Even if they don't take Anderson, I can still see them adding an RB in the draft that will cut into Davis’ current stock.

 

 

Any Ravens Wideout

 

There's just no way the Ravens go into the season with Willie Snead, a 4th, and 5th rounder (Jordan Lasley, Jaleen Scott) as their best options at WR for Lamar Jackson. If they are to invest in Jackson as their QB of the future, I see them drafting multiple WRs in this year's draft.

 

Willie Snead is the WR in the best position of the remaining WRs, but his stock may dip drastically of they decide to go with 2 WRs in the draft.

 

Jordan Lasley and Jaleen Scott will get their shot, but the starting jobs will go to whoever gels with Jackson the best.

 

Snead, Lasley, and Scott each have the privilege of being Jackson's teammates for a year, but draft capital will be on the side of any receiver drafted early.

 

 

 

Delanie Walker, Jonnu Smith, TEs, Titans

 

Anyone still holding on to the value of Walker and Smith should think of selling fast. Walker will be 35 when the season starts. He'll also be coming off an injury. And Smith punted his stock with the season he had last year when he had the opportunity to show he could be the team's future TE.

 

There are 3 TEs in this year's draft that have been predicted to go in the 1st round (Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, and Irv Smith Jr.) at around the spot where the Titans pick (19th overall).

 

You won't be getting much for them, but adding them in a trade to a team that's TE needy could be your best bet.

 

 

Kenyan Drake, RB, Dolphins

 

At the moment, it looks like the Dolphins are going with Drake and Ballage. They didn't make any moves this offseason to frighten anyone off Drake's fantasy value...so far.

 

We already see the drama that the Cardinals are going through with Kliff Kingsbury and reports that they are looking to trade Josh Rosen because Kingsbury may want to bring in Kyler Murray with the 1st overall pick. The Dolphins with new head coach Brian Flores have not shown that Drake is someone that the Dolphins are willing to invest in for the future. I think he'll be given a shot, but if he doesn't perform like an elite RB, they will have a chance next year to draft a high-quality RB coming out in 2020.

 

His base salary has jumped from $705,000 in 2018 to $2,025,000 in 2019. They would take a hit of about $200,000 if they were to get rid of him. He becomes a UFA in 2020. He will probably want north of $5,000,000 for his next contract but I don't see the Dolphins spending that money on an RB when they have options like Ballage, drafting one this year, or next year.

 

Follow me on Twitter @sbimickey
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