Week 11 DFS Targets

November 16, 2018

 

Quarterbacks

 

 

Matt Ryan – ATL (DK: $6100)

The stars align for Matt Ryan this week against the Cowboys. Ryan will get the benefit of a home game against a struggling team, are close favorites that could lead to teams trading scores, and shave off $100 against their previous DK price. Unfortunately, Vegas puts the over/under at 48 which isn’t ideal for QBs, but Matt Ryan has snuck past the higher echelon QBs as fantasy’s 2nd best in DK points per game. There are worse options at higher prices, and Ryan’s ceiling is undeniable, especially if we really think Julio Jones has finally broken his TD dry streak.

 

 

Jared Goff – LAR ($6400)

I’m not quite sure what’s going to happen with Goff now that stud sophomore Cooper Kupp is out for the year. It’s obviously a hit to Goff’s production, but potential lineup confusion could reap benefits for savvy owners. Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds all see price increases with Kupp’s absence, but Reynolds stands the most to benefit as long as LAR continues to play at an absurdly high rate with 11 personnel. Reynolds’ best game thus far came with 5 targets and a season high 88.5% snap share. This is going to go up, and while I’m interested in all LAR WR stacks with Goff, I’m looking Reynolds’ way in this high-scoring matchup.

 

Running Backs

 

 

Todd Gurley – LAR ($9600)

Paying up for the highest priced RB might seem difficult, but I think DraftKings dropped the ball with this one by cutting his salary under 5 significant figures. Gurley is the league’s only RB to put up more that 30 DK points per game. He is the focal point of this offense and plays with a 62 over/under as favorites. Things are really working in his favor, and you might want to consider a QB-RB-WR stack with the Rams this week. While it is a home game to boot, you might want to shy away from Gurley in large field tournaments, but start him in smaller-field tournaments, 50/50s, and head-to-head with confidence. It doesn’t matter anymore if 60% of the field has him. That 60% has the advantage.

 

 

Tevin Coleman – ATL ($5300)

Coleman might make an interesting stack with Matt Ryan, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Instead, I like Coleman’s middling price as the 17th-highest scoring RB in the league on a per-game basis, and that includes Devonta Freeman’s healthy presence. Freeman has been gone for a while now, but we aren’t quite catching up to Coleman’s potential. He’s young, fast, and talented, and has easy access to the opportunities that can launch him well above his pay-grade. He should be the RB2 you consider on your lineups.

 

Other Targets:

Kareem Hunt ($8100) didn’t live up to last week’s expectations, but I like him on the other side of the highest scoring game this week. James Conner ($7200) definitely doesn’t face a good matchup, but he’s priced as an RB2, despite his amazing seasonal performance. Dalvin Cook ($5600) might return to form, and if he does, he’s a cheap boon, but the uncertainty makes me unlikely to put him in cash games.

 

Wide Receivers

 

 

Alshon Jeffery – PHI ($6300)

New Orleans is getting obliterated by wide receivers, but I guess it doesn’t matter to much if they keep outscoring high-scoring teams. Agholor and Tate might seem like decent choices here as well, but Jeffery’s primary matchup against Eli Apple in which we don’t expect shadow coverage is enough for me to pay up for the team’s WR1. Not only is New Orleans giving up a lot of points to WRs, they’re also participating in the highest-scoring games of the season. You should consider stacking both sides of the ball in this matchup, and I say PHI’s best option is Jeffery until new teammate Golden Tate establishes himself.

 

 

Kenny Golladay – DET ($5800)

Detroit WRs are all facing a plus matchup against the Carolina Panthers, and though I was originally leaning toward Marvin Jones for this game, Golladay has upgraded from preseason sleeper to weekly reliable. Opportunity is king, even in DFS, and Golladay received 13 targets a week ago, and with Marvin Jones questionable to return and missing practice Wednesday, the chances of Golladay having a big game keep going up.

 

Other Targets:

Calvin Ridley ($5700) My love for the Falcons in Week 11 doesn’t end with Julio Jones. Pivot to Ridley if you want a high ceiling with lower ownership. Mike Evans ($7300) already has a good matchup, but if Chris Godwin doesn’t show up, then Evans will have even more opportunity, regardless of QB play. Devin Funchess ($5100) is a nice play on the other side of the DET game. Both teams are giving up so much in the pass that this could turn into a major air game.

 

Tight Ends

 

 

Trey Burton – CHI ($3800)

Chicago has a home favorite game against Minnesota and Burton’s play is enough for me to trust him, but Trubisky’s play is what really gets me to focus on this. I think Burton is potentially a way to capitalize on some newfound love for Allen Robinson. While Robinson is becoming the target monster that he was in JAX, Burton fits the new coaching style and is priced below his season-long performance for this plus matchup.

 

 

Travis Kelce – KC ($6500)

Wow, another bid for Kelce. But seriously, if you’re not rostering either Ertz or Kelce, you’re not likely to put together the best possible lineup. My bid for Kelce over Ertz this week pretty much comes down to price. Kelce is coming off a “down” week and so his price has been cut accordingly, while Ertz’s price rises off a monster performance. Both players are going to see huge volume, and both have great potential for TDs, but Kelce is the better TE, though DK’s PPR points mitigate that to an extent. Still, the $100 you can save with Kelce is worth it to me.

 

Defense / Special Teams

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers ($2900)

I think the Steelers are mispriced here. While they are facing a road game against the Jaguars, Jacksonville isn’t exactly an intimidating offensive powerhouse. Priced in the lowest third of active teams, the Steelers have a decent shot to really produce, especially at 5.5-point favorites at open. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the best DFS defenses win, so here’s a very affordable, winning option. As well, as a low-owned option, you can feel good about starting the Steelers in any format.

 

 

Chicago Bears ($2600)

It’s hard to imagine the Bears priced so low, as they still lead the league in DK points per game. This will be one of the lower-scoring games this week and the Bears are home favorites. Slashing $1000 off of their price from one week to the next definitely seems like an over-correction. I once again expect this defense to be highly owned, but at this price, it doesn’t really matter, because the most important thing is to assemble the highest-scoring team, regardless of ownership.

 

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