If you Google hot take, you'll be able to scroll down and quickly see that one thing most definitions have in common when defining hot take is that it's a reaction to recent news to attract attention. However, I feel like in the fantasy community, the reaction doesn't have to do with recent news. The opinion just has to be one different from what most people think. That's what I'm trying to achieve here, and hopefully, make sense doing it.
I'll be choosing players, who in my opinion, have a good chance of failing to perform up to their current ADP standards.
So without further ado, let's piss some people off.
The Player: Derrick Henry
The Take: Dion Lewis will have a better fantasy season than Derrick Henry in PPR and Standard
All I'm doing here is following the money. And the talent. And the lack thereof. I'm not really sold on any of the WRs on the roster except Corey Davis. Yeah Corey Davis was injured most of last year and should have a pretty stellar year but there are 130 targets missing with the departures of Eric Decker and DeMarco Murray. That shouldn't hype Dion Lewis too much, but that, in combination with the hire of offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur, should.
Todd Gurley had 87 Targets (64 REC) for 788 yards and 6 REC TDs. I wouldn't expect similar numbers but if you combine that with the rushing yards Lewis may get, if he stays healthy for all 16 games, he has a real chance of reaching 1,000 yards rushing/ receiving.
LaFleur also helped Jared Goff excel in his sophomore year in the league so I'd expect Mariota to also have similar growth. Maybe not the same numbers, but an increase in passing yards (3,232 passing yards in 2017), and in TDs (13 in 2017).
The reason I think Henry is on the hot seat is because although he's a physical beast, he runs more like an old school running back. They also gave Dion Lewis 4 years /19.8 million (8.25 million guaranteed).
We've seen Henry burst out for big runs late in games, but if the team wanted him for the “ground and pound” and thought he could do everything like we heard earlier this off-season, they wouldn't have brought in someone as talented as Lewis.
The Player: Randall Cobb
The Take: Randall Cobb won't have much fantasy relevance in 2017.
Randall Cobb’s only year with over 1,000 yards was in 2014 (1287 yards). The past 2 years he hasn't been able to break past 700 yards (610 in 2016 and 653 in 2017), granted, Aaron Rodgers was injured most of last year, but the team also brought in some more help on offense.
Geronimo Allison is still on the team and is predicted to contribute more this year. They signed Jimmy Graham, and I'm sure they didn't sign him to block. They drafted 3 wide receivers this year in J’Mon Moore, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Let's not forget Davante Adams.
Jamaal Williams, Ty Montgomery, and Adam Jones combined for 57 catches on 83 targets last year combined. That's more throws not going Cobb.
I know he's a good value if he performs well, (ADP is early in the 8th round in Half-PPR per Fantasy Football Calculator) but I'm just not sure there's enough targets there to make him anything more than a WR3 this year.
The Player: Kenyan Drake
The Take: He won't finish the year as the team's best fantasy running back.
You can pick your poison with this one.
Adam Gase not being able to run the team very well.
Ryan Tannehill not being healthy yet and even if he was the team is obviously ok with leaving him behind with all the talk about them maybe drafting a QB is this past draft.
Frank Gore. Man I am tired of counting this guy out of anything. He said he still wanted to play. And if Gore wants to play, I'm sure he's not choosing a place where he's not guaranteed touches. It's not like Miami has good odds of making it to the Superbowl or the playoffs for that matter. He had 290 touches for 1,206 total yards (rushing and receiving) at 34 years old last year.
Furthermore, if the team liked Drake so much, they wouldn't have brought in so much help. Besides Gore, they also brought in Kalen Ballage (4th round 31st pick). This is the guy people are either very high on, or think he's all hype (I'm in on the hype).
There's just to much going on with that team, that makes his 4.09 ADP (per Fantasy Football Calculator in Half-PPR) too rich for my blood.
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