John Kelly: Who is a Fair Comparison?


Many of you I am sure have been looking for the next Alvin Kamara following the explosive rookie season he had in 2017 winning Fantasy Football championships for a lot of teams.  It has been a hot topic this whole off-season for teams trying to find the next hidden gem.

John Kelly out of Tennessee is a guy that I have seen in and out of this conversation ever since the Super Bowl when the Dynasty season officially begins.  I decided to go through the exercise myself to see what kind of comparable players he has based on his athletic profile. 


If you guys haven't checked it out yet you can run your own player comparisons dynamically at my new website:


To begin lets give his profile a look:




1. He is pretty small coming in at 5'-10" 216 lbs


2. Using the metric developed by @MathBomb called Relative Athleticism Score he see that he is a slightly below average athlete coming in a 47.2%.  This metric is a average of how he did in all of his athletic testing compared to his Running back peers.


3. His forty time is 4.70 secs after I adjusted it to conformed to the standards of the NFL combine.


4. His best attribute is his upper percentile Burst Score.  This is a metric that combined Vertical and Broad jump.  It gives us insight into a player's explosiveness off the line and coming into contact.


Lets use what we pulled from his profile and find some player comparisons with the Overview App.


  • Filter by Running Backs only

  • Add a < 220 lbs filter

  • Add a 3 < X < 5.0 RAS Score

  • Add a > 4.60 forty  time filter


If you stop here at this point and ignore the Burst Score you will find 3 notable players out of over 13000 players in my database.


Kareem Hunt
Theo Riddick

Mark Ingram


If you watched any college film at all you know that John Kelly is a wonderful pass catching back.  These are 3 great comps for a smaller running back coming in with good hands.


Now take a look at burst score and it is really obvious... Kareem Hunt is our guy. Almost the exact same profiles.  Weight, Height and Test...




This feels like a really good comp on the surface, but you have to remember that analytically Kareem Hunt is a bit of an anomaly.  The list pictured below is the closest comparable players from our query...





You are looking at a barren wasteland of players for fantasy football production and then Kareem Hunt... 


I for one am willing to take a shot on a guy with a pretty solid comparison to a guy like Hunt.  They play similar coming out of college with strong pass catching ability and well as very aggressive running styles.  Plus where else are you going to find a guy that stole a significant snap share from Alvin Kamara at Tennessee.


Im not the first person to come to the same conclusion (


Let me know what you guys think of the Player Comparison as well by new web apps I've been working on this off-season.   


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