Weekly What The ??? - Week 1

September 13, 2017

  "Weekly What The?"

: the outlier or the norm, either positive or negative game results!

 

Week 1: Its upon us! 

PANIC PANIC PANIC!!! Should I trade Bell for Hunt, trade Gronkowski while he still has value, bench Cousins, Bench or drop Brandon Marshall, give up on Martavis Bryant after all the hype, start Alex Smith over Tom Brady, should I throw in the towel already and try again next year.... these are all things I've heard over the last couple days which is crazy. Let's step back and realize we can't overreact to what happened this week. Let's go position by position and highlight a few top performers and a few bottom performers at each position.

 

Quarterbacks

Starting off with Quarterback performances for week 1. Quite the oddball week where we saw mostly non start Quarterbacks take the top 4 spots and saw some of the Top QB selections finish in the 20's for QB ranking. Most notable Alex Smith started in 12% of leagues per Fantrax finished QB #1 completed 28 of 35 for 368 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tom Brady typically the number two Quarterback off the board in 2017 finished 22nd this week. My suggestion is don't panic the top tier QB's will come around and the lower tier QB's will come back to earth. Patriots’ defense was asleep against Alex Smith and the Saints defense going against the #2 QB Sam Bradford is coming off being ranked 31st against the pass in 2016. 

 

Top Performer Suggestions: 

Fantrax Ownership (%) and Start (%) for top 4 performers 

Alex smith: owned 44% started 12%

Matthew Stafford: owned 98% started 55%

Sam Bradford: owned 58% started 22%

Trevor Siemian owned 25% started 8% 

 

  • Alex Smith should be owned if you have a need for a backup QB or bye week starter. I don't believe he should be relied on for a weekly starter. 

  • Matthew Stafford is already owned in nearly all leagues and could possibly be worth a start week in and week out this season and could end up in the top 10 of quarterbacks this year. 

  • Sam Bradford should be owned for Backup position as well as spot starts while playing against bad pass Defenses. He has the offensive talent around him to put up decent to excellent numbers in those weeks

  • Trevor Siemian - I would recommend leaving him on waivers for now and monitor how he performs in the coming weeks. 

 

Notable bottom performer Suggestions: 

Week 1 QB Ranks: 

Brees (16) Start 

Cousins (20) Watch/Fringe Start 

Brady (22) Start 

Wilson (24) Start 

 

For all Quarterbacks drafted towards the top of the draft and busted week one take a deep breath and realize it was one week and don't PANIC and give Brady another start...  

 

Running backs

Let's move on to Running Backs performances for week 1. Three of the top four Running Backs this week are from this year’s Draft class. Most notable was Kareem Hunts game against the Patriots on Thursday. He totaled 158 yards and scored 3 total TDs. His performance deserves high praise but I'd be careful overhyping him too much after one week. Example being all the people I've heard considering trading Bell or other proven top level players for him. Leonard Fournette had a very Solid performance against the Houston Texans totaling 125 yards and a TD. 

 

Top performer Suggestions: 

*scores with PPR Format*

  • Kareem Hunt (46.6 points): Hunt was incredible in week one both on the ground and through the air. If you own him either keep him and reap the possible rewards or Trade him for his overly inflated Hype (people considering trading Bell for him). If you do not own him I do not suggest giving up your Proven top players quite yet. As good as he looked we're one week into his NFL career. He is however a must start moving forward.

  • Tarik Cohen (25.3 pts.): Waiver pick up 26% owned on Fantrax: One of the top week 2 waiver targets due to his solid week one performance the only question is will he continue to get enough work load behind Jordan Howard? I believe he's already moved into start range especially in PPR scoring. It might be wise to wait to see if he can repeat his performance. Cohen is a must own so get your waiver claim in. 

  • Mike Gillislee (22.5 points): Coming into week one we didn't know what to expect from Gillislee because of offseason injuries and being new to the Patriots. Week one it looks like he stepped right into the Blount roll that produced 18 TD's a year ago, Gillislee had 3 TD's and led him to the #3 for the week and looked like the best workhorse back for the Patriots. If you own him go ahead and start him and reap the rewards. It might be tempting to think you will sell high but I expect Gillislee to produce solid fantasy performances all season regardless scoring setting. 

  • Leonard Fournette (21.4 points): passed the eye test and ended the day with 21 points good enough to finish #4 for week one. The Jaguars offense looks improved from last year, although losing Robinson for the season will hurt some Fournette should benefit from a full workload out of the backfield. With Robinson out for the season he should see a few more targets than initially anticipated. If you own him go ahead and plug him into your starting lineup as a borderline must start with confidence he will get the volume and produce quality numbers all season. 

 

Notable Bottom Performers Suggestions:

*Scores with 1 PPR format*

 

Crowell (10.6 pts.) Watch/Start/Buy low 

Lynch (10.2 pts.) Watch/Start/Sell

CJ Anderson (9.8 pts.) Watch/Start

Demarco Murray (8.0 pts) Watch/Start/buy low

Frank Gore (6.2 pts.) Panic/Sit

Rob Kelley (3.0 pts.) Panic/Sit 

Jamaal Charles (3.0 pts) Watch/Sit

Adrian Peterson (1.8 pts.) Panic/Sit/Sell

Eddie Lacy (0.3 pts.) Panic/Sit

 

Top Waiver pickups:

Tarik Cohen, Chris Thompson, Theo Riddick, Marlon Mack 

 

 

Wide Receivers 

Overall this week it was a mixed bag with some of the top receivers performing well and other personally terribly. There were a handful of surprise solid games and a few Rookies impressed. Overall it was a down week for the top tier Wide Receivers and I'd expect a bounce back from a lot of them. Again, it's week one let's not panic and let things work themselves out before making too many drastic moves. 

 

  • Antonio Brown (29.2): Typically number one receiver taken in redraft leagues comes out week one with the top performance of the week. Clearly a must start in all formats look for him to consistently finish at the top week in and week out. 

  • Stefon Diggs (27.7): All offseason we read and heard that if Diggs can stay healthy all season he could have a breakout season. Week one he was healthy and put up enough to finish #2 numbers for the week. A side note is he was playing against the 31st ranked pass defense from last year. While healthy Diggs is a must start in all formats and should continue to be a top tier Wide Receiver. 

  • Tyreek Hill (26.8): Is he a true number one wide receiver is the question we heard all offseason. Week one he certainly looked like it and put up numbers to finish #3 for the week. Personally, I'm still not fully sold he can perform at this level for an entire season. I would consider trading him at Peak value for a proven #1 receiver or RB depending on need. For now, he's a must start in all formats. 

  • Adam Thielen (24.7): The number two receiver per the depth chart in Minnesota. Thielen looks like he will improve on what was a breakout season last year. As with Diggs we must note he was playing against the Saints Secondary with ranked 31st last year. Thielen was targeted early and often and finished #4 for the week. He's a must start for week 2 and possibly moving forward. 

  • Kenny Golladay (22.9) waiver pick up 50% owned on Fantrax: The rookie Golladay for the Lions was brought in for Goal line work and he produced in a big way week one scoring 2 TD's in his first NFL game. His performance was enough to make him the #5 receiver and make him a top Waiver priority this week. Golladay is a must own and a possible start for a #3 receiver or flex position. 

 

Notable Bottom Performers Suggestions:

*Scores with PPR format*

 

Michael Thomas (9.5) Must Start  

Alshon Jefferey (8.8) Must Start 

TY Hilton (7.7) Watch(Luck)/Start/Buy low 

Devante Adams (7.7) Start 

Dez Bryant (6.3) Start/Buy low 

Emmanuel Sanders (5.6) Sit/Watch

Eric Decker (4) Sit/Watch

Kelvin Benjamin (3.5) Flex/WR3 Start

Martavis Bryant (3.4) Flex/WR3 Start buy low 

Brandon Marshall (2.0) Sit/Watch(OBJ) buy low 

Top Waiver Pickups 

Kenny Golladay, Nelson Agholor, Cooper Kupp, Danny Amendola (monitor concussion), Corey Davis, Sterling Shepard

 

Tight Ends

Last let's look at the TE position where there were a few solid performances but overall was a very disappointing week for most of the top TE picks. Is this what we should expect this season or will the top tier guys re-emerge on top.

 

TE Top Performer Suggestions

*scores with PPR format* 

  • Jesse James (22.1): Jesse James is in a high-powered offense in Pittsburgh but with the trade for Vance McDonald here was concern as to how much he would see the field. In week one the answer was he out snapped McDonald by a wide margin hauling in 6 out of 8 targets and ending with 2 TD's putting him at #1 TE for the week. That being said I would expect him to be a low volume TD dependent play for the most part. Should be rostered in all leagues mainly for backup duties, spot starts or bye week start. 

  • Austin Hooper (20.8): Austin Hooper is a young talented playmaker. Evident in week one where he had an 88 yard TD catch. Ended the day with only 2 catches, but went for 128 yards and a TD which put him at #2 TE for the week. I believe at this point he's a low TE1 with upside with questions about whether he will get the volume in the Falcons offense to produce quality starts week in and week out. 

  • Jason Witten (18.9): The ageless wonder does it again with a solid performance in week 1 going 7 for 59 yards and a TD putting him at #3 for the week. Witten looks to be a vital part to the Cowboys once again this season. Like the last couple years, he stays TE2 fringe TE1 good enough for spot starts or bye week starts. 

  • Zach Ertz (17.3): Year in and year out Ertz is always talked about how this is his year. He's had back to back solid years under the radar but is this the year he really breaks out? Week one he had a strong game hauling in 8 catches for 93 yards which put him at #4 this week. I look for him to be a must start all season being a mid level TE1. 

 

Notable Bottom Performers Suggestions:

*Scores with PPR format*

 

Travis Kelce (9.4) Must Start/buy low 

Jordan Reed (8.6) Must Start/Watch(injury)

Michael Bennett (7.3) Start/watch(volume)

GRONK (5.3) Must Start 

Greg Olsen (3.8) Must Start/buy low 

Jimmy Graham (3.8) Must Start/buy low 

Tyler Eifert (1.4) Fringe Start 

Hunter Henry (0.0) Sit/watch(Gates/volume) 

 

Top Waiver Pickups: 

Jesse James, Coby Fleener, Charles Clay, Jared Cook 

 

 

 

 

Hopefully you enjoyed the first weekly Installment of "Weekly What The". Football is back and it's an exciting time for all of us. Make sure to check out our other writers as well. JonathanStone@JEStoneTH8FF on twitter  , Ryan Calver @ryandcal on twitter, Tim Jablonski @TimJablonski on twitter, also our Software developer Matt Spencer @Maatspencer on twitter. Lastly checkout the Podcast the thing that makes this all possible. The best podcast around

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