Call me safe, lame, or whatever you want, but there is a serious infection that will be plaguing fantasy owners this year. It’s called Fantasy Rookie Fever and it means business. If you are tempted to draft some of this year’s rookies way earlier than they should be drafted then you too may be at risk of Fantasy Rookie Fever. Symptoms include wrecked rosters, wasted draft picks, and worst of all terminal playoff contention. Recommended treatment is to read this article and prepare yourselves to avoid the plague.
In all seriousness, some of this year’s rookies are being extremely overdrafted in current mock drafts. It’s dangerously sweet and enticing to buy in to the potential of some of these rookies, but drafting them over proven players in good positions is ludicrous. Do yourself a favor and do not buy into the over hype surrounding some of these rookies. Don’t get me wrong. These guys are crazy talented, but drafting them as early as they are going will not win you a championship.
Leonard Fournette (Current ADP: 23)
Fournette is definitely in contention for fantasy rookie of the year and is definitely in a great situation in Jacksonville. The team is shifting their offensive philosophy, he’s already got the starting job, and a good defense means lots of positive game scripts are possible. However, his current ADP in PPR leagues is 23rd overall and is being taken way too early to still be valuable. Here are some other players going around that same draft position: Marshawn Lynch, Rob Gronkowski, Todd Gurley, Doug Baldwin, and Deandre Hopkins. There is absolutely no way that I am going to draft Fournette over any of these other players. I currently have him ranked 56th overall in PPR leagues.
Joe Mixon (Current ADP: 35)
Mixon is my personal favorite for rookie of the year, but I still will not be taking him at his current ADP. Mixon, just like Fournette, is going to go into a good situation where he will end up as the starter in a good offense. However, taking him at his current ADP means you will miss out on other assets like Allen Robinson, Terrelle Pryor, and Travis Kelce. Again, I would much rather have any of those players over an unproven rookie talent that doesn’t have a guaranteed starting role yet.
Christian McCaffrey (Current ADP: 33)
McCaffrey is going just two spots earlier than Mixon in the current PPR ADP, but I still am not willing to take him over any of the players that I previously mentioned. McCaffrey looks great and is a great talent, but he’s a clunky fit to say the least in the Panthers offense. The Panthers do not normally throw to their running backs and Newton is infamous for vulturing rushing touchdowns from his RBs. McCaffrey is my least favorite rookie option this year and being drastically overdrafted.
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