Now with stat projection and outlier support! I added a new feature into the 2017 Draft Loadout for users to chart out their own projections for the coming season. I will go through Aaron Rodgers to show you how this can be used. Hopefully you find it as useful as I do! Please let me know in the comments section.
1. Download the newest version of the draft load-out or make sure you are up to date if you are running the auto updating version.
2. Run the app and setup your league's scoring.
3. Open up the Preseason Planner Browser
4. Select Players -> Player Trend Analysis from the strip on the top of the page.
This is the chart for Aaron Rodger's career from 2007 to last year in 2016. I am charting his fantasy points for this example. You can see that in a standard league he has ranged just 3 points in 2007 up to his career high 442 points in 2011.
Assuming a linear relationship he is projected to get 428 point in 2017. That seems a little bit high to me...
We can do much better than this though. In 2007 Brett Favre was still in the picture so lets remove that year.
We are looking a little bit better at 356 points, but lets see whats going on in 2013 by checking his games played using the drop down.
2013 was the year Rodgers fractured his collarbone against the bears missing about half the season. Rather than treating this as an outlier lets see what happens if we adjust his career stats for 16 games played.
Using this approach we can guess that Rodgers is good for about 384 points this season not taking any of the off season roster changes into account.
In addition to fantasy points you can use this tool to chart any of the stats in the drop down:
Here is what you could project Rodger's Passing Yards at next season using the same approach: